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Syrianska FC vs Enskede — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Enskede
Enskede
6/29/2025Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 14Sodertalje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Syrianska FC49%
×Draw22%
Enskede29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.96
Enskede
1.48

Syrianska FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 52 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.82
Enskede
1.46

allows per match

Syrianska FC
1.51
Enskede
2.10

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Enskede+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Enskede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
71%
Syrianska FC or Enskede
78%
Draw or Enskede
51%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
28%
Enskede wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
86%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
58%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
31%
Enskede 1+ goals
77%
Enskede 2+ goals
43%
Enskede 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
62%
Enskede (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Enskede away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Enskede defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.96

Enskede attack 1.46 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
49%
level
22%
Enskede scores more
29%

Syrianska FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Syrianska FC 3–1 Enskede

Syrianska FC beat Enskede 3-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.