Enskede 1–2 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Enskede

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Syrianska FC

9/21/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 22Enskede IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Enskede46%

×Draw23%

Syrianska FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnskedeExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.48

Enskede

1.85

Syrianska FC

1.48

Enskede creates 25% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 73 away

1.83

creates per match

1.73

1.23

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Enskede

1.83

Syrianska FC

1.73

allows per match

Enskede

1.23

Syrianska FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enskede+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enskede ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Enskede or draw

69%

Enskede or Syrianska FC

77%

Draw or Syrianska FC

54%

Winning margin

Enskede wins by 2+

25%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Enskede 1+ goals

84%

Enskede 2+ goals

55%

Enskede 3+ goals

28%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

77%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

43%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Enskede (draw refunded)

60%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enskede at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enskede attack 1.83 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Enskede defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Enskede scores more

46%

level

23%

Syrianska FC scores more

31%

Enskede at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Enskede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff