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Syrianska FC vs Eker Örebro — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eker Örebro
Eker Örebro
5/11/2025Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 7Sodertalje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Syrianska FC58%
×Draw20%
Eker Örebro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
2.33
Eker Örebro
1.38

Syrianska FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 20 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.82
Eker Örebro
1.25

allows per match

Syrianska FC
1.51
Eker Örebro
2.85

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Eker Örebro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Eker Örebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
78%
Syrianska FC or Eker Örebro
80%
Draw or Eker Örebro
42%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
37%
Eker Örebro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
90%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
67%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
41%
Eker Örebro 1+ goals
75%
Eker Örebro 2+ goals
40%
Eker Örebro 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
73%
Eker Örebro (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Eker Örebro away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Eker Örebro defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.33

Eker Örebro attack 1.25 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
58%
level
20%
Eker Örebro scores more
22%

Syrianska FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syrianska FC vs Eker Örebro

Syrianska FC and Eker Örebro drew 0-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.