Eker Örebro 3–0 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Eker Örebro

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Syrianska FC

9/21/2025

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 22Lundby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eker Örebro37%

×Draw21%

Syrianska FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eker ÖrebroExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.97

Eker Örebro

1.83

Syrianska FC

1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 73 away

1.80

creates per match

1.73

2.20

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Eker Örebro

1.80

Syrianska FC

1.73

allows per match

Eker Örebro

2.20

Syrianska FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eker Örebro+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eker Örebro ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Eker Örebro or draw

58%

Eker Örebro or Syrianska FC

79%

Draw or Syrianska FC

63%

Winning margin

Eker Örebro wins by 2+

19%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Eker Örebro 1+ goals

84%

Eker Örebro 2+ goals

54%

Eker Örebro 3+ goals

28%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

86%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

58%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Eker Örebro (draw refunded)

47%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eker Örebro at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eker Örebro attack 1.80 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Eker Örebro defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eker Örebro scores more

37%

level

21%

Syrianska FC scores more

42%

Syrianska FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff