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Syrianska FC vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
9/25/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Syrianska FC35%
×Draw25%
Dalkurd FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.37
Dalkurd FF
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.07
Dalkurd FF
0.98

allows per match

Syrianska FC
2.00
Dalkurd FF
1.67

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
60%
Syrianska FC or Dalkurd FF
75%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
65%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
16%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
75%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
40%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
16%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
77%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
44%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
46%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.07 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
35%
level
25%
Dalkurd FF scores more
40%

Dalkurd FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syrianska FC vs Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Syrianska FC 2-1 in Superettan on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje).