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Dalkurd FF vs Syrianska FC — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
5/6/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 6Gavlevallen (Gävle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF51%
×Draw24%
Syrianska FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.76
Syrianska FC
1.16

Dalkurd FF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Syrianska FC
0.87

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Syrianska FC
2.00

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
75%
Dalkurd FF or Syrianska FC
76%
Draw or Syrianska FC
49%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
28%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
83%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
52%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
26%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
69%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
32%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
67%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
51%
level
24%
Syrianska FC scores more
25%

Dalkurd FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Dalkurd FF 4–1 Syrianska FC

Dalkurd FF beat Syrianska FC 4-1 in Superettan on May 6, 2019.

The match was played at Gavlevallen (Gävle).