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Syrianska FC vs Assyriska FF — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
4/24/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 4Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Syrianska FC32%
×Draw23%
Assyriska FF45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.50
Assyriska FF
1.82

Assyriska FF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 45 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.82
Assyriska FF
2.13

allows per match

Syrianska FC
1.51
Assyriska FF
1.18

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Assyriska FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
55%
Syrianska FC or Assyriska FF
77%
Draw or Assyriska FF
68%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
15%
Assyriska FF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
78%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
44%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
19%
Assyriska FF 1+ goals
84%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
54%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
41%
Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Assyriska FF away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Assyriska FF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Assyriska FF attack 2.13 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
32%
level
23%
Assyriska FF scores more
45%

Assyriska FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syrianska FC vs Assyriska FF

Assyriska FF beat Syrianska FC 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.