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Assyriska FF vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
8/14/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 17Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Assyriska FF57%
×Draw20%
Syrianska FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assyriska FF
2.19
Syrianska FC
1.33

Assyriska FF creates 65% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

creates per match

Assyriska FF
2.52
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Assyriska FF
0.93
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw
77%
Assyriska FF or Syrianska FC
80%
Draw or Syrianska FC
43%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+
35%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals
89%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
64%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
37%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
74%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
38%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
71%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 2.52 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.19

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Assyriska FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Assyriska FF scores more
57%
level
20%
Syrianska FC scores more
23%

Assyriska FF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assyriska FF vs Syrianska FC

Assyriska FF and Syrianska FC drew 0-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.