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Syria vs Australia — Asian Cup 2019

Syria
Syria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Australia
Australia
1/18/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Syria14%
×Draw41%
Australia46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syria
0.33
Australia
0.83

Australia creates 152% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Syria
0.33
Australia
1.33

allows per match

Syria
0.33
Australia
0.33

finishing

Syria+0.00on par
Australia+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Under
  • Under89
  • Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

84%No
  • No84
  • Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syria ↓

Australia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–031%
0–126%
0–211%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
69%31%1.5
32%68%2.5
11%89%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Syria or draw
54%
Syria or Australia
59%
Draw or Australia
86%

Winning margin

Syria wins by 2+
2%
Australia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Syria 1+ goals
28%
Syria 2+ goals
4%
Syria 3+ goals
0%
Australia 1+ goals
56%
Australia 2+ goals
20%
Australia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Syria (draw refunded)
23%
Australia (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syria at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Australia away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syria attack 0.33 + Australia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Australia attack 1.33 + Syria defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Syria scores more
14%
level
41%
Australia scores more
46%

Australia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syria vs Australia

Australia beat Syria 1-0 in Asian Cup on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.