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Australia vs Syria — Asian Cup 2019

Australia
Australia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Syria
Syria
1/15/2019Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 3Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia63%
×Draw22%
Syria15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Australia
1.83
Syria
0.74

Australia creates 147% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Australia
2.00
Syria
0.67

allows per match

Australia
0.80
Syria
1.67

finishing

Australia+0.00on par
Syria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia ↓

Syria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Australia or draw
85%
Australia or Syria
78%
Draw or Syria
37%

Winning margin

Australia wins by 2+
37%
Syria wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Australia 1+ goals
84%
Australia 2+ goals
54%
Australia 3+ goals
28%
Syria 1+ goals
52%
Syria 2+ goals
17%
Syria 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Australia (draw refunded)
81%
Syria (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Syria away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia attack 2.00 + Syria defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Syria attack 0.67 + Australia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Australia scores more
63%
level
22%
Syria scores more
15%

Australia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: Australia 3–2 Syria

Australia beat Syria 3-2 in Asian Cup on January 15, 2019.

The match was played at Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium in Al Ain.