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Sylvia vs Ljungsbro — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Sylvia
Sylvia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ljungsbro
Ljungsbro
O. Matic 81'
E. Arvidsson 39'
9/8/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 20PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sylvia73%
×Draw15%
Ljungsbro12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sylvia
2.85
Ljungsbro
1.11

Sylvia creates 157% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sylvia
2.63
Ljungsbro
1.38

allows per match

Sylvia
0.85
Ljungsbro
3.08

finishing

Sylvia+0.00on par
Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sylvia ↓

Ljungsbro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sylvia or draw
88%
Sylvia or Ljungsbro
85%
Draw or Ljungsbro
27%

Winning margin

Sylvia wins by 2+
52%
Ljungsbro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sylvia 1+ goals
94%
Sylvia 2+ goals
77%
Sylvia 3+ goals
53%
Ljungsbro 1+ goals
67%
Ljungsbro 2+ goals
30%
Ljungsbro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sylvia (draw refunded)
86%
Ljungsbro (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sylvia at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Ljungsbro away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sylvia attack 2.63 + Ljungsbro defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.85

Ljungsbro attack 1.38 + Sylvia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sylvia scores more
73%
level
15%
Ljungsbro scores more
12%

Sylvia at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
E. Arvidsson
81'
O. Matic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sylvia vs Ljungsbro

Sylvia beat Ljungsbro 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on September 8, 2024.

Goals: E. Arvidsson (39'), O. Matic (81').

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.