Ljungsbro 3–0 Sylvia: Result & Stats

Ljungsbro

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sylvia

5/11/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 7Maxivallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ljungsbro35%

×Draw25%

Sylvia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LjungsbroExpected goals in this matchSylvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.46

Ljungsbro

1.37

Sylvia

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

1.31

creates per match

1.46

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Ljungsbro

1.31

Sylvia

1.46

allows per match

Ljungsbro

1.46

Sylvia

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Sylvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungsbro ↓

Sylvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ljungsbro or draw

61%

Ljungsbro or Sylvia

75%

Draw or Sylvia

65%

Winning margin

Ljungsbro wins by 2+

16%

Sylvia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ljungsbro 1+ goals

75%

Ljungsbro 2+ goals

40%

Ljungsbro 3+ goals

16%

Sylvia 1+ goals

77%

Sylvia 2+ goals

43%

Sylvia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)

47%

Sylvia (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungsbro at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Sylvia away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungsbro attack 1.31 + Sylvia defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sylvia attack 1.46 + Ljungsbro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ljungsbro scores more

35%

level

25%

Sylvia scores more

39%

Sylvia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sylvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff