Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydvest vs Aarhus Fremad — League #123 2026

Sydvest
Sydvest
FT
0 – 2
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
10/26/2019League #123League #123 · Group 2 - 14BankParken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sydvest13%
×Draw20%
Aarhus Fremad67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydvest
0.81
Aarhus Fremad
2.10

Aarhus Fremad creates 159% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sydvest
1.43
Aarhus Fremad
2.20

allows per match

Sydvest
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
0.20

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw
33%
Sydvest or Aarhus Fremad
80%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
87%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+
4%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals
56%
Sydvest 2+ goals
19%
Sydvest 3+ goals
5%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
88%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
62%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)
17%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.43 + Aarhus Fremad defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.20 + Sydvest defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sydvest scores more
13%
level
20%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
67%

Aarhus Fremad at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydvest vs Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat Sydvest 2-0 in League #123 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at BankParken in Tønder.