Sydvest 1–1 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Sydvest

FT

1 – 1

Aarhus Fremad

3/13/2021

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Løgumkloster Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sydvest30%

×Draw27%

Aarhus Fremad44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydvestExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.40

Sydvest

1.10

Aarhus Fremad

1.40

Aarhus Fremad creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 81 away

1.06

creates per match

1.63

1.17

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sydvest

1.06

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

Sydvest

1.17

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw

56%

Sydvest or Aarhus Fremad

73%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

70%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+

12%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals

67%

Sydvest 2+ goals

30%

Sydvest 3+ goals

10%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

75%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

41%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)

40%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.06 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Sydvest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sydvest scores more

30%

level

27%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

44%

Aarhus Fremad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff