Sydney 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

Sydney

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

11/7/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sydney41%

×Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydneyExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.40

Sydney

1.56

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.40

Sydney creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

1.80

1.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Sydney

2.33

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.80

allows per match

Sydney

1.00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sydney or draw

66%

Sydney or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

76%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

59%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+

20%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals

79%

Sydney 2+ goals

46%

Sydney 3+ goals

21%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

75%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

41%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)

55%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 2.33 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.80 + Sydney defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sydney scores more

41%

level

24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

34%

Sydney at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff