Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 Sydney: Result & Stats

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sydney

10/23/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima45%

×Draw22%

Sydney33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchSydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.60

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.90

Sydney

1.60

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.60

creates per match

2.20

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2.60

Sydney

2.20

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.00

Sydney

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

67%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Sydney

78%

Draw or Sydney

55%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

25%

Sydney wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

85%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

56%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

29%

Sydney 1+ goals

80%

Sydney 2+ goals

47%

Sydney 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

58%

Sydney (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Sydney away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 2.60 + Sydney defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sydney attack 2.20 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

45%

level

22%

Sydney scores more

33%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff