Sydney 5–0 Eastern: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Sydney

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Eastern

9/19/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sydney74%

×Draw15%

Eastern11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydneyExpected goals in this matchEastern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.00

Sydney

2.78

Eastern

1.00

Sydney creates 178% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

3.22

creates per match

Sydney

2.33

Eastern

1.00

allows per match

Sydney

1.00

Eastern

3.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par

Eastern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Eastern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sydney or draw

89%

Sydney or Eastern

85%

Draw or Eastern

26%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+

53%

Eastern wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals

94%

Sydney 2+ goals

76%

Sydney 3+ goals

51%

Eastern 1+ goals

63%

Eastern 2+ goals

26%

Eastern 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)

87%

Eastern (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Eastern away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 2.33 + Eastern defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.78

Eastern attack 1.00 + Sydney defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sydney scores more

74%

level

15%

Eastern scores more

11%

Sydney at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff