Eastern 1–4 Sydney: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Eastern

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Sydney

11/28/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Mong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eastern15%

×Draw18%

Sydney68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EasternExpected goals in this matchSydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.44

Eastern

1.04

Sydney

2.44

Sydney creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

0.89

creates per match

2.20

2.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Eastern

0.89

Sydney

2.20

allows per match

Eastern

2.67

Sydney

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern+0.00on par

Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern ↓

Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Eastern or draw

32%

Eastern or Sydney

82%

Draw or Sydney

85%

Winning margin

Eastern wins by 2+

5%

Sydney wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Eastern 1+ goals

65%

Eastern 2+ goals

28%

Eastern 3+ goals

9%

Sydney 1+ goals

91%

Sydney 2+ goals

70%

Sydney 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Eastern (draw refunded)

18%

Sydney (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Sydney away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern attack 0.89 + Sydney defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sydney attack 2.20 + Eastern defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Eastern scores more

15%

level

18%

Sydney scores more

68%

Sydney at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff