Sydney 2–2 Bangkok United: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Sydney

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bangkok United

2/12/2025

AFC Cup · Round of 16Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sydney49%

×Draw24%

Bangkok United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydneyExpected goals in this matchBangkok United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.20

Sydney

1.72

Bangkok United

1.20

Sydney creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

1.40

1.00

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Sydney

2.33

Bangkok United

1.40

allows per match

Sydney

1.00

Bangkok United

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Bangkok United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sydney or draw

73%

Sydney or Bangkok United

76%

Draw or Bangkok United

51%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+

27%

Bangkok United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals

82%

Sydney 2+ goals

51%

Sydney 3+ goals

25%

Bangkok United 1+ goals

70%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

34%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)

65%

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Bangkok United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 2.33 + Bangkok United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bangkok United attack 1.40 + Sydney defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sydney scores more

49%

level

24%

Bangkok United scores more

27%

Sydney at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff