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Bangkok United vs Sydney — AFC Cup 2018

Bangkok United
Bangkok United
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sydney
Sydneyadvanced
2/19/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Round of 16Thammasat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bangkok United34%
×Draw23%
Sydney43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok United
1.54
Sydney
1.77

Sydney creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bangkok United
1.89
Sydney
2.20

allows per match

Bangkok United
1.33
Sydney
1.20

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw
57%
Bangkok United or Sydney
77%
Draw or Sydney
66%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+
16%
Sydney wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals
79%
Bangkok United 2+ goals
45%
Bangkok United 3+ goals
20%
Sydney 1+ goals
83%
Sydney 2+ goals
53%
Sydney 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)
44%
Sydney (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Sydney away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 1.89 + Sydney defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sydney attack 2.20 + Bangkok United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bangkok United scores more
34%
level
23%
Sydney scores more
43%

Sydney at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangkok United vs Sydney

Bangkok United and Sydney drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Thammasat Stadium in Pathum Thani.