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Sydney United vs Sutherland Sharks — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney United
Sydney United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
2/8/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 1Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Sydney United45%
×Draw25%
Sutherland Sharks30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney United
1.58
Sutherland Sharks
1.25

Sydney United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sydney United
1.51
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

allows per match

Sydney United
1.21
Sutherland Sharks
1.65

finishing

Sydney United+0.00on par
Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney United ↓

Sutherland Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sydney United or draw
70%
Sydney United or Sutherland Sharks
75%
Draw or Sutherland Sharks
55%

Winning margin

Sydney United wins by 2+
23%
Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sydney United 1+ goals
79%
Sydney United 2+ goals
47%
Sydney United 3+ goals
21%
Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
71%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
36%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sydney United (draw refunded)
60%
Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney United at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 95 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney United attack 1.51 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + Sydney United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sydney United scores more
45%
level
25%
Sutherland Sharks scores more
30%

Sydney United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney United vs Sutherland Sharks

Sydney United and Sutherland Sharks drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.