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Sutherland Sharks vs Sydney United — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sydney United
Sydney United
2/14/2026New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Seymour Shaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Sutherland Sharks31%
×Draw25%
Sydney United45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutherland Sharks
1.27
Sydney United
1.58

Sydney United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.00
Sydney United
1.56

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.59
Sydney United
1.54

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par
Sydney United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

Sydney United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw
55%
Sutherland Sharks or Sydney United
75%
Draw or Sydney United
69%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
13%
Sydney United wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
36%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
14%
Sydney United 1+ goals
79%
Sydney United 2+ goals
47%
Sydney United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
41%
Sydney United (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Sydney United away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + Sydney United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sydney United attack 1.56 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more
31%
level
25%
Sydney United scores more
45%

Sydney United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutherland Sharks vs Sydney United

Sydney United beat Sutherland Sharks 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Seymour Shaw Park.