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Sydney United vs Hills Brumbies — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney United
Sydney United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
3/10/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 5Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sydney United65%
×Draw19%
Hills Brumbies16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney United
2.25
Hills Brumbies
1.00

Sydney United creates 125% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sydney United
1.51
Hills Brumbies
0.80

allows per match

Sydney United
1.21
Hills Brumbies
3.00

finishing

Sydney United+0.00on par
Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney United ↓

Hills Brumbies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sydney United or draw
84%
Sydney United or Hills Brumbies
81%
Draw or Hills Brumbies
35%

Winning margin

Sydney United wins by 2+
42%
Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sydney United 1+ goals
89%
Sydney United 2+ goals
65%
Sydney United 3+ goals
39%
Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
63%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
26%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sydney United (draw refunded)
81%
Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney United at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 95 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney United attack 1.51 + Hills Brumbies defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hills Brumbies attack 0.80 + Sydney United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sydney United scores more
65%
level
19%
Hills Brumbies scores more
16%

Sydney United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney United vs Hills Brumbies

Sydney United beat Hills Brumbies 3-0 in New South Wales NPL on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.