Hills Brumbies 2–3 Sydney United: Result & Stats

Hills Brumbies

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Sydney United

6/15/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 20Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hills Brumbies35%

×Draw23%

Sydney United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hills BrumbiesExpected goals in this matchSydney United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.68

Hills Brumbies

1.54

Sydney United

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

1.53

creates per match

1.56

1.80

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Hills Brumbies

1.53

Sydney United

1.56

allows per match

Hills Brumbies

1.80

Sydney United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Sydney United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hills Brumbies ↓

Sydney United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hills Brumbies or draw

59%

Hills Brumbies or Sydney United

77%

Draw or Sydney United

65%

Winning margin

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+

17%

Sydney United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals

79%

Hills Brumbies 2+ goals

45%

Hills Brumbies 3+ goals

20%

Sydney United 1+ goals

81%

Sydney United 2+ goals

50%

Sydney United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)

46%

Sydney United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hills Brumbies at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sydney United away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hills Brumbies attack 1.53 + Sydney United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sydney United attack 1.56 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hills Brumbies scores more

35%

level

23%

Sydney United scores more

41%

Sydney United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff