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Sydney United vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney United
Sydney United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
5/26/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 16Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sydney United55%
×Draw23%
Central Coast II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney United
1.84
Central Coast II
1.10

Sydney United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sydney United
1.51
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Sydney United
1.21
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Sydney United+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney United ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sydney United or draw
77%
Sydney United or Central Coast II
77%
Draw or Central Coast II
45%

Winning margin

Sydney United wins by 2+
31%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sydney United 1+ goals
84%
Sydney United 2+ goals
55%
Sydney United 3+ goals
28%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
67%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
30%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sydney United (draw refunded)
71%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney United at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 95 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney United attack 1.51 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.84

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Sydney United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sydney United scores more
55%
level
23%
Central Coast II scores more
23%

Sydney United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney United vs Central Coast II

Sydney United beat Central Coast II 1-0 in New South Wales NPL on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.