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Central Coast II vs Sydney United — New South Wales NPL 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sydney United
Sydney United
D. Niyonkuru 41'
P. Antelmi 45+2' (pen)
C. De Oliveira 32'
2/17/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 1Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II35%
×Draw23%
Sydney United42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
1.54
Sydney United
1.70

Sydney United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 96 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
1.53
Sydney United
1.56

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.83
Sydney United
1.54

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
Sydney United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Sydney United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
58%
Central Coast II or Sydney United
77%
Draw or Sydney United
65%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
17%
Sydney United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
79%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
45%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
20%
Sydney United 1+ goals
82%
Sydney United 2+ goals
51%
Sydney United 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
46%
Sydney United (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

Sydney United away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + Sydney United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sydney United attack 1.56 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Coast II scores more
35%
level
23%
Sydney United scores more
42%

Sydney United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
C. De Oliveira
41'
D. Niyonkuru
45+2'
P. AntelmiPenalty
81'
H. Menham
81'
P. Antelmi
81'
R. Smith

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast II vs Sydney United

Sydney United beat Central Coast II 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on February 17, 2024.

Goals: C. De Oliveira (32'), D. Niyonkuru (41'), P. Antelmi (45+2' pen).

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.