Sydney Olympic 1–1 North Shore Mariners

Sydney Olympic

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

North Shore Mariners

Unknown 47'

Unknown 31'

9/26/2020

New South Wales NPL · Round 9Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sydney Olympic43%

×Draw23%

North Shore Mariners34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney OlympicExpected goals in this matchNorth Shore Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.50

Sydney Olympic

1.73

North Shore Mariners

1.50

Sydney Olympic creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 30 away

1.55

creates per match

1.50

1.49

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sydney Olympic

1.55

North Shore Mariners

1.50

allows per match

Sydney Olympic

1.49

North Shore Mariners

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney Olympic ↓

North Shore Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sydney Olympic or draw

66%

Sydney Olympic or North Shore Mariners

77%

Draw or North Shore Mariners

57%

Winning margin

Sydney Olympic wins by 2+

23%

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sydney Olympic 1+ goals

82%

Sydney Olympic 2+ goals

52%

Sydney Olympic 3+ goals

25%

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals

78%

North Shore Mariners 2+ goals

44%

North Shore Mariners 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)

56%

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.49 · 92 matches

North Shore Mariners away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + North Shore Mariners defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

North Shore Mariners attack 1.50 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sydney Olympic scores more

43%

level

23%

North Shore Mariners scores more

34%

Sydney Olympic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

47'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff