North Shore Mariners 2–4 Sydney Olympic

North Shore Mariners

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Sydney Olympic

L. Rose 55', 19'

N. Ujdur 71', 15'

R. O'Donovan 67'

D. Burgess 33'

6/4/2022

New South Wales NPL · Round 14Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Shore Mariners29%

×Draw22%

Sydney Olympic49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Shore MarinersExpected goals in this matchSydney Olympic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.99

North Shore Mariners

1.48

Sydney Olympic

1.99

Sydney Olympic creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 97 away

1.48

creates per match

1.55

2.43

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

North Shore Mariners

1.48

Sydney Olympic

1.55

allows per match

North Shore Mariners

2.43

Sydney Olympic

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par

Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Shore Mariners ↓

Sydney Olympic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

North Shore Mariners or draw

51%

North Shore Mariners or Sydney Olympic

78%

Draw or Sydney Olympic

71%

Winning margin

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+

13%

Sydney Olympic wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals

77%

North Shore Mariners 2+ goals

43%

North Shore Mariners 3+ goals

19%

Sydney Olympic 1+ goals

86%

Sydney Olympic 2+ goals

59%

Sydney Olympic 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)

37%

Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Shore Mariners at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

Sydney Olympic away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Shore Mariners attack 1.48 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + North Shore Mariners defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

North Shore Mariners scores more

29%

level

22%

Sydney Olympic scores more

49%

Sydney Olympic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

N. Ujdur

19'

L. Rose

33'

D. Burgess

55'

L. Rose

67'

R. O'Donovan

71'

N. Ujdur

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff