Sydney Olympic 1–2 Hills Brumbies: Result & Stats

Sydney Olympic

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hills Brumbies

2/17/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 1Belmore Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sydney Olympic62%

×Draw19%

Hills Brumbies18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney OlympicExpected goals in this matchHills Brumbies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.15

Sydney Olympic

2.27

Hills Brumbies

1.15

Sydney Olympic creates 97% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

1.55

creates per match

0.80

1.49

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Sydney Olympic

1.55

Hills Brumbies

0.80

allows per match

Sydney Olympic

1.49

Hills Brumbies

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney Olympic ↓

Hills Brumbies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sydney Olympic or draw

82%

Sydney Olympic or Hills Brumbies

81%

Draw or Hills Brumbies

38%

Winning margin

Sydney Olympic wins by 2+

40%

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sydney Olympic 1+ goals

90%

Sydney Olympic 2+ goals

66%

Sydney Olympic 3+ goals

39%

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals

68%

Hills Brumbies 2+ goals

32%

Hills Brumbies 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)

77%

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.49 · 92 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + Hills Brumbies defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Hills Brumbies attack 0.80 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sydney Olympic scores more

62%

level

19%

Hills Brumbies scores more

18%

Sydney Olympic at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff