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Hills Brumbies vs Sydney Olympic — New South Wales NPL 2026

Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic
5/25/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 16Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hills Brumbies34%
×Draw23%
Sydney Olympic42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hills Brumbies
1.50
Sydney Olympic
1.68

Sydney Olympic creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

Hills Brumbies
1.53
Sydney Olympic
1.55

allows per match

Hills Brumbies
1.80
Sydney Olympic
1.47

finishing

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par
Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hills Brumbies ↓

Sydney Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hills Brumbies or draw
58%
Hills Brumbies or Sydney Olympic
77%
Draw or Sydney Olympic
66%

Winning margin

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
16%
Sydney Olympic wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
78%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
44%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
19%
Sydney Olympic 1+ goals
81%
Sydney Olympic 2+ goals
50%
Sydney Olympic 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
45%
Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hills Brumbies at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sydney Olympic away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hills Brumbies attack 1.53 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hills Brumbies scores more
34%
level
23%
Sydney Olympic scores more
42%

Sydney Olympic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Hills Brumbies 2–1 Sydney Olympic

Hills Brumbies beat Sydney Olympic 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.