Sydney Olympic 0–1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers

Sydney Olympic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

8/31/2025

New South Wales NPL · Round 30Belmore Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sydney Olympic35%

×Draw23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney OlympicExpected goals in this matchAPIA Leichhardt Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.73

Sydney Olympic

1.58

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 96 away

1.55

creates per match

1.96

1.49

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sydney Olympic

1.55

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.96

allows per match

Sydney Olympic

1.49

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney Olympic ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sydney Olympic or draw

58%

Sydney Olympic or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

77%

Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

65%

Winning margin

Sydney Olympic wins by 2+

17%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sydney Olympic 1+ goals

79%

Sydney Olympic 2+ goals

47%

Sydney Olympic 3+ goals

21%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

82%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

52%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)

46%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.49 · 92 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.60 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.96 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sydney Olympic scores more

35%

level

23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

42%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff