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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Sydney Olympic — New South Wales NPL 2026

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic
5/18/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 15Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers48%
×Draw23%
Sydney Olympic29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.77
Sydney Olympic
1.33

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.06
Sydney Olympic
1.55

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.12
Sydney Olympic
1.47

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Sydney Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
71%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Sydney Olympic
77%
Draw or Sydney Olympic
52%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
26%
Sydney Olympic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
83%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
53%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
26%
Sydney Olympic 1+ goals
74%
Sydney Olympic 2+ goals
38%
Sydney Olympic 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
62%
Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

Sydney Olympic away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
48%
level
23%
Sydney Olympic scores more
29%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2–0 Sydney Olympic

APIA Leichhardt Tigers beat Sydney Olympic 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Lambert Park in Sydney.