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Sydney FC vs Suwon Bluewings — AFC Champions League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
2/14/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sydney FC23%
×Draw24%
Suwon Bluewings52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.02
Suwon Bluewings
1.66

Suwon Bluewings creates 63% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.15
Suwon Bluewings
1.70

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.62
Suwon Bluewings
0.90

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
48%
Sydney FC or Suwon Bluewings
76%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
77%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
8%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
64%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
27%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
8%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
81%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
49%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
31%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.15 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.70 + Sydney FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sydney FC scores more
23%
level
24%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
52%

Suwon Bluewings at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Sydney FC 0–2 Suwon Bluewings

Suwon Bluewings beat Sydney FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on February 14, 2018.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.