Suwon Bluewings 1–4 Sydney FC: Result & Stats

Suwon Bluewings

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Sydney FC

D. Damjanović 24'

Bobô 90+1'

A. Mierzejewski 79'

A. Brosque 31'

M. Ninković 23'

4/3/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Suwon Bluewings44%

×Draw25%

Sydney FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchSydney FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.29

Suwon Bluewings

1.58

Sydney FC

1.29

Suwon Bluewings creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.75

creates per match

1.08

1.50

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.75

Sydney FC

1.08

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.50

Sydney FC

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Sydney FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

69%

Suwon Bluewings or Sydney FC

75%

Draw or Sydney FC

56%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

22%

Sydney FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

79%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

47%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

21%

Sydney FC 1+ goals

72%

Sydney FC 2+ goals

37%

Sydney FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

59%

Sydney FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.75 + Sydney FC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sydney FC attack 1.08 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

44%

level

25%

Sydney FC scores more

31%

Suwon Bluewings at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Mierzejewski

Sydney FC · M

9.1

Match Events

23'

M. Ninković↳ A. Mierzejewski

24'

D. Damjanović↳ Yeom Ki-Hun

31'

A. Brosque↳ A. Mierzejewski

36'

Chris Zuvela

57'

Kim Jong-Woo← Cho Ji-Hoon

72'

Lim Sang-Hyub← Koo Ja-Ryong

79'

A. Mierzejewski↳ D. Carney

88'

Bobô← A. Mierzejewski

90+1'

Bobô↳ C. Zuvela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuwonSydney

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots6

14Corners1

15Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots6

6On Target5

9Off Target0

4Blocked1

12Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

502Total Passes384

419Accurate Passes310

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

6Offsides2