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Sydney FC vs Shanghai Shenhua — AFC Champions League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
4/17/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydney FC43%
×Draw26%
Shanghai Shenhua31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.41
Shanghai Shenhua
1.15

Sydney FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.15
Shanghai Shenhua
0.67

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.62
Shanghai Shenhua
1.67

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
69%
Sydney FC or Shanghai Shenhua
74%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
57%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
20%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
76%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
41%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
17%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
68%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
32%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
58%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.15 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Sydney FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sydney FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
31%

Sydney FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Sydney FC 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Sydney FC and Shanghai Shenhua drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on April 17, 2018.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.