Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Sydney FC: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Sydney FC

2/21/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua40%

×Draw25%

Sydney FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchSydney FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.38

Shanghai Shenhua

1.51

Sydney FC

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.60

creates per match

1.08

1.67

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.60

Sydney FC

1.08

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

Sydney FC

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Sydney FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

65%

Shanghai Shenhua or Sydney FC

75%

Draw or Sydney FC

60%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

20%

Sydney FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

78%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

44%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

19%

Sydney FC 1+ goals

75%

Sydney FC 2+ goals

40%

Sydney FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

54%

Sydney FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.60 + Sydney FC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sydney FC attack 1.08 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

40%

level

25%

Sydney FC scores more

35%

Shanghai Shenhua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff