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Sydney FC U23 vs Mt Druitt Town — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
3/30/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 8Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sydney FC U2347%
×Draw22%
Mt Druitt Town31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Mt Druitt Town
1.58

Sydney FC U23 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
Mt Druitt Town
1.19

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Mt Druitt Town
2.17

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Mt Druitt Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
69%
Sydney FC U23 or Mt Druitt Town
78%
Draw or Mt Druitt Town
53%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
27%
Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
86%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
59%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
31%
Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
79%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
47%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
60%
Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Mt Druitt Town away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Mt Druitt Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.19 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
47%
level
22%
Mt Druitt Town scores more
31%

Sydney FC U23 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Sydney FC U23 0–2 Mt Druitt Town

Mt Druitt Town beat Sydney FC U23 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.