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Mt Druitt Town vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
5/20/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 16Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Mt Druitt Town35%
×Draw23%
Sydney FC U2342%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mt Druitt Town
1.56
Sydney FC U23
1.75

Sydney FC U23 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 94 away

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.29
Sydney FC U23
1.56

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.94
Sydney FC U23
1.82

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par
Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Sydney FC U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw
58%
Mt Druitt Town or Sydney FC U23
77%
Draw or Sydney FC U23
65%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
17%
Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
79%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
46%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
21%
Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
83%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
52%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
45%
Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 69 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.29 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more
35%
level
23%
Sydney FC U23 scores more
42%

Sydney FC U23 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mt Druitt Town vs Sydney FC U23

Sydney FC U23 beat Mt Druitt Town 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Popondetta Park in Emerton.