Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney FC U23 vs Hills Brumbies — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
O. Fryer 63' (pen), 18'
M. Macallister 51'
B. Ginn 44'
6/11/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 19Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sydney FC U2359%
×Draw19%
Hills Brumbies22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
2.39
Hills Brumbies
1.39

Sydney FC U23 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
Hills Brumbies
0.80

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Hills Brumbies
3.00

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Hills Brumbies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
78%
Sydney FC U23 or Hills Brumbies
81%
Draw or Hills Brumbies
41%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
38%
Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
91%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
69%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
42%
Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
75%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
40%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
73%
Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Hills Brumbies defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.39

Hills Brumbies attack 0.80 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
59%
level
19%
Hills Brumbies scores more
22%

Sydney FC U23 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
O. Fryer
44'
B. Ginn
51'
M. Macallister
63'
O. FryerPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Sydney FC U23 3–1 Hills Brumbies

Sydney FC U23 beat Hills Brumbies 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on June 11, 2024.

Goals: O. Fryer (18', 63' pen), B. Ginn (44'), M. Macallister (51').

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.