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Hills Brumbies vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
A. Frangie 85'
T. Lopez 47' (pen)
C. Jackson-Brown 43'
C. Philp 41'
M. Glasson 90'
N. Amanatidis 62'
3/6/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 4Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hills Brumbies39%
×Draw23%
Sydney FC U2339%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hills Brumbies
1.68
Sydney FC U23
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 94 away

creates per match

Hills Brumbies
1.53
Sydney FC U23
1.56

allows per match

Hills Brumbies
1.80
Sydney FC U23
1.82

finishing

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par
Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hills Brumbies ↓

Sydney FC U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hills Brumbies or draw
61%
Hills Brumbies or Sydney FC U23
77%
Draw or Sydney FC U23
61%

Winning margin

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
20%
Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
81%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
50%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
24%
Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
81%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
50%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
50%
Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hills Brumbies at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hills Brumbies attack 1.53 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hills Brumbies scores more
39%
level
23%
Sydney FC U23 scores more
39%

Hills Brumbies at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hills Brumbies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
C. Philp
43'
C. Jackson-Brown
47'
T. LopezPenalty
62'
N. Amanatidis
85'
A. Frangie
90'
M. Glasson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hills Brumbies vs Sydney FC U23

Hills Brumbies beat Sydney FC U23 4-2 in New South Wales NPL on March 6, 2024.

Goals: C. Philp (41'), C. Jackson-Brown (43'), T. Lopez (47' pen), N. Amanatidis (62'), A. Frangie (85'), M. Glasson (90').

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.