Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney FC U23 vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
M. Macallister 74'
4/11/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 10Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sydney FC U2349%
×Draw22%
Central Coast II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Central Coast II
1.49

Sydney FC U23 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
71%
Sydney FC U23 or Central Coast II
78%
Draw or Central Coast II
51%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
28%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
86%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
59%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
31%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
44%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
63%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
49%
level
22%
Central Coast II scores more
29%

Sydney FC U23 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
L. Taylor
56'
S. Mutokoyi
74'
M. Macallister

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Sydney FC U23 1–0 Central Coast II

Sydney FC U23 beat Central Coast II 1-0 in New South Wales NPL on April 11, 2025.

Goals: M. Macallister (74').

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.