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Central Coast II vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
M. France 70', 52'
J. Calusic 11'
7/27/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 25Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II38%
×Draw23%
Sydney FC U2339%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
1.68
Sydney FC U23
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 94 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
1.53
Sydney FC U23
1.56

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.83
Sydney FC U23
1.82

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Sydney FC U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
61%
Central Coast II or Sydney FC U23
77%
Draw or Sydney FC U23
62%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
19%
Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
81%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
50%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
24%
Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
82%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
51%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
49%
Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Coast II scores more
38%
level
23%
Sydney FC U23 scores more
39%

Sydney FC U23 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
J. Calusic
52'
M. France
70'
M. France

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast II vs Sydney FC U23

Sydney FC U23 beat Central Coast II 3-0 in New South Wales NPL on July 27, 2025.

Goals: J. Calusic (11'), M. France (52', 70').

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.