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Sydney FC U23 vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
J. Stewart 37', 28'
3/27/2026New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 8Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Sydney FC U2334%
×Draw22%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.69
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.96

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.95

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.59

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
56%
Sydney FC U23 or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
78%
Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
66%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
17%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
82%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
50%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
24%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
86%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
58%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
43%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.95 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
34%
level
22%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
44%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
J. Stewart
37'
J. Stewart

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC U23 vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers

APIA Leichhardt Tigers beat Sydney FC U23 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on March 27, 2026.

Goals: J. Stewart (28', 37').

The match was played at Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre in Sydney.