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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
N. Azzone 62'
J. Brazete 90+1'
T. Quintal 45+5', 28'
J. Kucharski 41'
M. Glasson 26'
8/11/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 28Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers51%
×Draw22%
Sydney FC U2327%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.94
Sydney FC U23
1.34

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 45% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 94 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.06
Sydney FC U23
1.56

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.12
Sydney FC U23
1.82

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Sydney FC U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
73%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Sydney FC U23
78%
Draw or Sydney FC U23
49%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
29%
Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
86%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
58%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
30%
Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
74%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
39%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
66%
Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
51%
level
22%
Sydney FC U23 scores more
27%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
M. Glasson
28'
T. Quintal
41'
J. Kucharski
45+5'
T. Quintal
62'
N. Azzone
90+1'
J. Brazete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1 – 5 Sydney FC U23

Sydney FC U23 beat APIA Leichhardt Tigers 5-1 in New South Wales NPL on August 11, 2024.

Goals: M. Glasson (26'), T. Quintal (28', 45+5'), J. Kucharski (41'), N. Azzone (62'), J. Brazete (90+1').

The match was played at Lambert Park in Sydney.