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SWQ Thunder vs Surfers Paradise Apollo — Queensland Premier League 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
2 – 3
Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
6/10/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 13Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SWQ Thunder27%
×Draw21%
Surfers Paradise Apollo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
1.45
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.06

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 11 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.55

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Surfers Paradise Apollo
0.91

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
49%
SWQ Thunder or Surfers Paradise Apollo
79%
Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo
73%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
12%
Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
77%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
42%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
18%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
87%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
61%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
35%
Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.45

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
27%
level
21%
Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
51%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: SWQ Thunder 2–3 Surfers Paradise Apollo

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat SWQ Thunder 3-2 in Queensland Premier League on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.