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Surfers Paradise Apollo vs SWQ Thunder — Queensland Premier League 2026

Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
FT
3 – 3
SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
3/4/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo62%
×Draw18%
SWQ Thunder20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.65
SWQ Thunder
1.47

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 56 away

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.92
SWQ Thunder
1.77

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
1.17
SWQ Thunder
2.38

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par
SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

SWQ Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw
80%
Surfers Paradise Apollo or SWQ Thunder
82%
Draw or SWQ Thunder
38%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
41%
SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
93%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
74%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
48%
SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
77%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
43%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
76%
SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + SWQ Thunder defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.65

SWQ Thunder attack 1.77 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
62%
level
18%
SWQ Thunder scores more
20%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Surfers Paradise Apollo 3–3 SWQ Thunder

Surfers Paradise Apollo and SWQ Thunder drew 3-3 in Queensland Premier League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1 in Gold Coast.