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SWQ Thunder vs Moreton City II — Queensland Premier League 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Moreton City II
Moreton City II
6/8/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 14Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SWQ Thunder65%
×Draw17%
Moreton City II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
2.81
Moreton City II
1.47

SWQ Thunder creates 91% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 11 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Moreton City II
1.36

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Moreton City II
3.64

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Moreton City II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Moreton City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
82%
SWQ Thunder or Moreton City II
83%
Draw or Moreton City II
35%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
44%
Moreton City II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
94%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
76%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
52%
Moreton City II 1+ goals
77%
Moreton City II 2+ goals
43%
Moreton City II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
78%
Moreton City II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Moreton City II away — creates 1.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Moreton City II defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.81

Moreton City II attack 1.36 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
65%
level
17%
Moreton City II scores more
18%

SWQ Thunder at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SWQ Thunder vs Moreton City II

SWQ Thunder beat Moreton City II 3-2 in Queensland Premier League on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.