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Moreton City II vs SWQ Thunder — Queensland Premier League 2026

Moreton City II
Moreton City II
FT
1 – 4
SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
3/9/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 3Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II26%
×Draw19%
SWQ Thunder55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton City II
1.73
SWQ Thunder
2.56

SWQ Thunder creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 56 away

creates per match

Moreton City II
1.09
SWQ Thunder
1.77

allows per match

Moreton City II
3.36
SWQ Thunder
2.38

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par
SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

SWQ Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw
45%
Moreton City II or SWQ Thunder
81%
Draw or SWQ Thunder
74%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+
12%
SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals
82%
Moreton City II 2+ goals
52%
Moreton City II 3+ goals
25%
SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
92%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
72%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)
32%
SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + SWQ Thunder defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

SWQ Thunder attack 1.77 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Moreton City II scores more
26%
level
19%
SWQ Thunder scores more
55%

SWQ Thunder at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreton City II vs SWQ Thunder

SWQ Thunder beat Moreton City II 4-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.