Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SWQ Thunder vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland Premier League 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
3 – 2
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
3/26/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SWQ Thunder48%
×Draw19%
Magpies Crusaders32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
2.49
Magpies Crusaders
2.04

SWQ Thunder creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 10 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
1.98
Magpies Crusaders
2.50

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
1.58
Magpies Crusaders
3.00

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
68%
SWQ Thunder or Magpies Crusaders
81%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
52%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
29%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
92%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
71%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
45%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
87%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
60%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
60%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.49

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
48%
level
19%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
32%

SWQ Thunder at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SWQ Thunder vs Magpies Crusaders

SWQ Thunder beat Magpies Crusaders 3-2 in Queensland Premier League on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.