SWQ Thunder 2–4 Magpies Crusaders: Result & Stats

SWQ Thunder

FT

2 – 4

Magpies Crusaders

3/2/2019

Queensland NPL · Round 5Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SWQ Thunder47%

×Draw19%

Magpies Crusaders33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SWQ ThunderExpected goals in this matchMagpies Crusaders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

2.08

SWQ Thunder

2.48

Magpies Crusaders

2.08

SWQ Thunder creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

2.07

creates per match

1.10

3.07

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

SWQ Thunder

2.07

Magpies Crusaders

1.10

allows per match

SWQ Thunder

3.07

Magpies Crusaders

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Magpies Crusaders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw

67%

SWQ Thunder or Magpies Crusaders

81%

Draw or Magpies Crusaders

53%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+

29%

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals

92%

SWQ Thunder 2+ goals

70%

SWQ Thunder 3+ goals

44%

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

87%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

61%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)

59%

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 2.07, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 2.07 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.48

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + SWQ Thunder defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more

47%

level

19%

Magpies Crusaders scores more

33%

SWQ Thunder at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff